![]() They find that the Wuhan lockdown reduced inflow into Wuhan by 76.64 % and outflow from Wuhan by 56.35 %. quantify the causal impact of the Wuhan lockdown on the containment and delay of the COVID-19 by employing various difference-in-differences (DID) estimation strategies. Previous studies have contributed to the understanding of the impact of various control measures related to human mobility and virus transmission. This lockdown represented the largest quarantine in the history of public health and provides us with an opportunity to critically examine the effects of a city lockdown on resident mobility and the spread and containment of COVID-19. ![]() on January 23, 2020, to midnight on April 8, 2020. Wuhan, China imposed a 76-day lockdown on its 11 million people from 10 a.m. Together, it is also an empirical challenge to quantify the impact of movement restrictions on the spread of the epidemic. Further, in the case of epidemic transmission, it is difficult to isolate the impact of human mobility from other potential contributing factors. Additionally, both granular disease occurrence data and population mobility data are difficult to obtain. However, due to the negative impact on freedom of movement, the economy, and society at large, coupled with the uncertainty of its effectiveness in controlling the epidemic, restrictions on human mobility are controversial. In response to the threat of this pandemic, many countries have considered and implemented measures to restrict the movement of people as part of their response plan. The lag in vaccine development and the unclear effectiveness of existing vaccines against the new variants exacerbate the uncertainty of the containment and control in the coming months.ĬOVID-19 and many other virus infections are primarily transmitted through person-to-person contact. Currently, multiple dangerous variants of the COVID-19 virus are circulating globally. Additionally, a new variant first identified in India in March 2021 contained a “double mutant” and launched a deadly second wave of COVID-19. The emergence of a new variant of the virus in the UK in December 2020 caused a surge in new COVID-19 cases. New variants are leading to increased cases due to the mutations having an easier and more rapid transmission. Further complicating this problem is the fact that viruses constantly mutate. Novel COVID-19 vaccines made by Pfizer and Moderna have provided promising efficacy, but it is still unclear how well they will contain the spread of coronavirus. Because of the relatively mild symptoms and the fact that it can spread before the onset of symptoms, COVID-19 evolved into one of the worst global pandemics. Therefore, in spite of initial widespread skepticism, lockdowns are likely to be added to the response toolkit used for any future pandemic outbreak.ĬOVID-19 emerged in the city of Wuhan in the Hubei Province of China in December of 2019 and spread rapidly. Further, the city lockdown strategy can buy time during which countries can mobilize an effective response in order to better prepare. Our study provided urgently needed and reliable causal evidence that city lockdown can be an effective short-term tool in containing and delaying the spread of a viral epidemic. The increase in new cases declined by around 50% during this period. However, the suppression effect became less discernible after this initial period of time. A 2.25-fold surge was found for the increase in new cases on the fifth day following the lockdown, after which it died down rapidly. A significant reduction of new cases was observed within four days of the lockdown. In our example, the lockdown of Wuhan reduced mobility inflow by approximately 60 % and outflow by about 50 %. By using a weighted average of available control cities to reproduce the counterfactual outcome trajectory that the treated city would have experienced in the absence of the lockdown, the synthetic control approach overcomes the sample selection bias and policy endogeneity problems that can arise from previous empirical methods in selecting control units. Methodsīased on the daily panel data from 279 Chinese cities, our research is the first to apply the synthetic control approach to empirically analyze the causal relationship between the Wuhan lockdown of its population mobility and the progression of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. This lockdown represented the largest quarantine in the history of public health and provides us with an opportunity to critically examine the relationship between a city lockdown on human mobility and controlling the spread of a viral epidemic, in this case COVID-19. This study aims to assess the causal impact of the Wuhan lockdown on population movement and the increase of newly confirmed COVID-19 cases. on JanuWuhan, China imposed a 76-day travel lockdown on its 11 million residents in order to stop the spread of COVID-19.
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